ATLANTA, June 27, 2025 – Defying expectations of a sharp contraction, the U.S. auto industry delivered a resilient second-quarter performance with sales rising 2.5% year-over-year to 4.18 million vehicles, according to Cox Automotive’s final June 2025 forecast. The quarterly strength, however, masked a significant June slowdown as the market continues adjusting to the ripple effects of new tariffs, tighter inventories, and cautious consumer spending .

Quarterly Strength Anchored in Spring Surge

• Robust Early Quarter Performance: Q2’s positive finish was fueled by unexpectedly strong April and May sales volumes. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) averaged a blistering 17.5 million units across March and April as buyers rushed dealerships to avoid anticipated tariff-driven price hikes .
• Year-over-Year Growth: Sales volume reached approximately 4.18 million units for the quarter, marking a 1.7% increase compared to Q2 2024 according to Cox data, or 2.5% as reported by J.D. Power/GlobalData. This also represented a 6.8% sequential increase over Q1’s 3.92 million units .
• Revised Annual Forecast: Based on the stronger-than-anticipated first half, Cox Automotive has modestly upgraded its full-year 2025 sales forecast to 15.7 million units, a slight increase from the 15.6 million projected at the end of Q1. However, this remains below 2024’s results and significantly lower than Cox’s initial 2025 forecast of 16.3 million .

June Slowdown Reflects Market Transition

• SAAR Retreats: The sales pace cooled markedly in June, with the SAAR dropping to 15.3 million. This was down from May’s 15.6 million and far below the spring surge peaks. While slightly above June 2024’s 15.0 million pace, it signals a weaker market entering summer .
• Volume Declines: June sales volume is projected to fall 6.3% year-over-year and 15.2% month-over-month to approximately 1.25 million units (Cox). Adjusting for two fewer selling days than June 2024, J.D. Power/GlobalData projected a smaller 5.4% decline or a 2.5% increase on an adjusted basis .
• Key Drivers of June Weakness:
  • Satiated Pull-Ahead Demand: The tariff-induced buying frenzy in March and April (estimated to have pulled forward ~173,000 sales) exhausted demand from motivated buyers .
  • Tightening Inventory & Rising Prices: New-vehicle inventory started June down 10.5% year-over-year. Dealers showed reluctance to offer significant discounts on remaining pre-tariff stock, while the arrival of tariffed vehicles pushed prices higher .
  • Payback Effect & Comparison Distortion: The 2024 June sales were depressed by approximately 85,000 units due to a major dealer software outage, making 2025 year-over-year comparisons appear artificially better than the underlying trend .

Market Share Shifts Dramatically Toward Largest Automakers

A defining trend of 2025 is the accelerating consolidation of market share among the largest automakers, who leveraged scale and brand strength to navigate headwinds more effectively.

Table: Major OEM Sales Performance Q2 & H1 2025 (Source: Cox Automotive Data )

OEM	Q2 2025 Sales	YOY % Change	H1 2025 Sales	YOY % Change	H1 Market Share	Share Point Change
General Motors	746,548	7.9%	1,436,887	12.1%	17.7%	+1.7
Toyota	674,502	9.5%	1,244,771	5.5%	15.3%	+0.7
Ford	610,422	14.6%	1,108,902	6.9%	13.7%	+0.8
Hyundai	474,449	8.2%	894,361	9.4%	11.0%	+0.8
Honda	389,246	9.2%	740,823	7.3%	9.1%	+0.5
Stellantis	300,473	-12.9%	591,662	-12.7%	7.3%	-1.4
Tesla	130,168	-20.8%	258,268	-15.2%	3.2%	-0.8

• Big Five Dominate: General Motors, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai, and Honda all posted significant year-over-year gains in Q2 and H1, collectively gaining market share. GM emerged as the standout, with H1 sales surging 12.1% .
• Struggles for Others: Smaller or more specialized automakers faced substantial headwinds. Stellantis, Nissan-Mitsubishi, Volkswagen, Tesla, and Daimler (Mercedes-Benz) all recorded double-digit percentage declines in Q2 sales compared to 2024. Tesla’s Q2 sales fell 20.8%, contributing to a 15.2% H1 decline .

Affordability Worsens as Tariffs Bite

• Record Transaction Prices: The average new-vehicle retail transaction price reached $46,233 in June, a 3.1% ($1,400) increase from June 2024 and the highest ever recorded for the month. Month-over-month, prices rose 0.2% ($77) .
• Shrinking Incentives: Contrary to typical summer trends, manufacturers slashed incentive spending. Incentives fell to just 5.0% of the average MSRP in June, down from 6.1% in January 2025, reflecting the $4,275 average per-vehicle cost increase manufacturers face from tariffs .
• Financing Pressures Mount: The average monthly financed payment climbed to $747 in June, up $22 from a year ago – another record high for the month – squeezing budget-conscious buyers .

Outlook: Navigating a Cooler, Pricier Market

Industry analysts caution that the headwinds seen in June are likely to persist through the summer months.

• Continued Cooling: “The sales forecast is showing a cooler market in June, as consumers face tighter inventory levels and reluctance on the part of most dealers to add big discounts,” stated Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive. “Much of the pull-ahead demand… has now been satiated, so consumer demand is expected to be weaker in the coming months. Buyers are very price-sensitive right now” .
• Upward Price Pressure: As pre-tariff inventory clears dealer lots and is replaced by vehicles subject to the new import levies, manufacturers and dealers have less flexibility to discount. This is expected to further pressure affordability and sales volumes .
• Resilience with Caution: While the Q2 results demonstrate underlying market resilience, particularly for the largest players, the lowered full-year forecast (15.7 million) reflects expectations of a more challenging second half defined by higher prices, cautious consumers, and the ongoing impact of trade policy .

The U.S. auto industry enters the second half of 2025 in a state of transition, balancing the unexpected strength of the spring against the tangible pressures of tariffs and inflation. The consolidation of success among the largest automakers appears set to continue as the market adapts to a new, more constrained reality.