If geopolitics and geology were working together, Brazil’s continental plate would currently be much closer to the tectonic plate that supports China.

With the American tariff hike against Brazil, the national automotive sector will be affected, but not only in the import of vehicles (in case of retaliation) but also in the export of engines and components to the States, now paying 50%.

In the opinion of experts, as heard by Paula Gama, a columnist for UOL , American sanctions on Brazilian exports (which is in fact the case) could increase the presence of Chinese cars in the national market.

Automotive consultant Cássio Pagliarini is categorical: “It’s an import deterrent.” He refers to the 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the American market and explains: “With a tariff like that, no one can compete. There was already a 20% drop when the tariff was 10%. At 50%, it goes to zero.”

For the automotive sector, unlike agribusiness, losing exports to the US is certainly a major loss, given that part of this comes from American companies, not to mention that other plants around the world would not necessarily be alternatives to the States.

According to Pagliarini, the global supply chain will also be affected by the ban on Brazilian exports. On the other side of the coin, the country may receive even more attention from China, its largest trading partner.

Andrea Weiss, a customs law specialist, and Hisayoshi Kameda, an international business specialist, believe that the Chinese will have an increasingly strong presence on the Brazilian scene.

Weiss comments: “Even with the gradual resumption of import taxes on electric vehicles in Brazil, the country continues to be seen as an opportunity [for the Chinese]. There is no geopolitical barrier here, like in the US.”

Kameda points out that the Brazilian market is large, there is demand for cheaper cars, and there are no geopolitical impediments. He says: ” Chinese automakers are already setting up factories and research centers and making plans to make Brazil a regional export base.”

However, this exposure to China could make the country more dependent on its Asian partner and make competition unequal, since costs there are lower, while the risk is enormous for automakers already established here.

Automakers have already said that they will not be able to compete with the Chinese in the domestic market under the current conditions.